ABC elections analyst Antony Green says NSW’s Coalition has won the state election, but may be in a minority government.
Green said the count was the “slowest he had ever seen”.Labor will be unable to win more seats than the Coalition who have won about 45 seats, and need 47 to form a majority government.”There has been a 4 per cent drop in the Liberal and National first-preference vote but the Labor vote hasn’t risen,” Green said.It is unclear whether the Coalition will be returned in the majority or minority.”It’s probably in the majority … but as I’ve said I’ve had some difficulty with some of these seats, so I’m inclined to be cautious as to whether it’s a majority or minority,” Green said.He said the Coalition had so far fared “much better” than opinion polls suggested.
This is Liberal leader Gladys Berejiklian’s first election as premier as she assumed the position after previous leader Mike Baird resigned in 2017.
The Liberal Party have so far managed to retain a significant number of their seats despite an overall swing of 4.4 per cent against them.
The Nationals, however, had not fared as well, and appeared set to lose the marginal electorate of Murray to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers — who were also ahead in Barwon.
Treasurer Dominic Perrottet said the early indications of a Coalition victory were the result of a strong campaign run by the Premier.
“This is looking like a very strong result for the Coalition in the circumstances of some of the challenges that we faced,” he said.
“I think what Gladys has been able to successfully do in this election is talk about the other things — the significant infrastructure that we’re building across the state and the importance of that.”
Kogarah shows impact of Daley’s migration comments
Labor MP Jodi McKay refused to declare it a “bad night” for Labor and pointed to the fact that the Coalition has possibly lost six seats.
“It’s a disappointing result for us, but I also think this is not a victory that the government can crow about when you look at the seats that they are likely to lose,” she said.
Labor’s vote took a hit in the Sydney seat of Kogarah, which has a large Chinese-Australian population.
Labor leader Michael Daley’s campaign was rocked in the final week after a video emerged of him telling a party function that jobs in Sydney were being taken by foreigners, “from typically Asia”.
There was a 4.5 per cent swing to the Liberal party in the electorate and Green said those numbers were at odds with those in nearby seats.
Ms McKay said the past week had damaged her party’s campaign and the comments in that video were a “major setback”.
“Look, to be honest, I think last week really hurt us,” she said.
Adding to Labor’s pain is the new Keep Sydney Open Party, aimed at young, left-leaning voters.
Green said the party had brought down the Labor and Green votes in Coogee and East Hills.
“It’s not a big difference, but I think it might have intruded in the two-party preferred swing,” Green said.
Earlier this week, Mr Daley said he would not stand down as Labor leader if the party lost tonight.with:ABC News