In the wake of the European Parliamentary elections, attention turned to who would replace Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels’ top job as EU Commission president.
The balance of power had clearly shifted away from traditional parties, which only held on to top spots by a slim margin.
Euronews’ Political Editor Darren McCaffrey explained that everything hinges on a high level EU meeting on Tuesday to work out a process for choosing the commission head and whether the spitzenkandidat process will be abandoned.
If the system is upheld one of the lead candidates from the four top performing parties — Manfred Weber (EPP), Frans Timmermans (S&D), Margrethe Vestager (ALDE), Ska Keller (Greens) — is most likely to take office.
Per the spitzenkandidat system, the leader of the European party that commands the largest coalition after the election is likely to become the Commission president.
If it is thrown out, candidates that were not nominated spitzenkandidat could come to the fore, including the EPP’s Michel Barnier and Kristalina Georgieva.
The process has highlighted a divide between the bloc’s heads of state and thus could be scrapped with French President Emmanuel Macron speaking out against it as well as Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel who called it a “stupid idea”.
Who are bookies backing?
The EPP’s Weber is by far bookies’ favourite at even odds, although Barnier is in second place at 6/1 (14.3%), which came after his odds were slashed by nearly a third since November 2018, according to UK bookmakers Ladbrokes.
Weber remains firm favourite, but his probability of becoming the next Commission president has gone down from 4/5 in November 2018.
The EPP candidates are followed by Timmermans at 8/1 and Vestager at 10/1.